Published 17 September 2024
The looming US elections will not determine the course of US-China relations. Regardless of which party wins the elections, the superpower rivalry is set to deepen as national and economic security competition intensifies. Both Washington and Beijing are doubling down on antagonism, and trade ties will worsen in the foreseeable future.
When Chinese President Xi Jinping sat down with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in April 2023, he allegedly told her that the US was trying to lure China into attacking Taiwan, but that he would not fall in the trap. This anecdote is only one of many in recent years highlighting the escalating US-China national security competition and the risk it poses to the stability of global security, economy, and trade.
The US and China stopped getting along as well as they did from the 1980s to the early 2000s because of a sea change that was virtually inevitable. First, China’s economic growth led to rising Chinese strategic power and increased frictions with the United States over post-WWII American influence in Asia. The US has no intention of ceding its hard-won strategic position in the region, which means that any ambitious competitor was and is always going to engage in security competition. Second, social and political pressures the Chinese Communist Party is facing as a result of China’s economic downturn and structural impediments have prompted the party to reassert its control. This re-centralization of power indicates that Beijing has refused to reform its economic model and to reduce global trade imbalances.
Download Why US-China ties will worsen regardless of the US vote by Matt Gertken:
As the race to the White House heats up, Matt Gertken, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, reviews how the greatest rivalry in modern history might evolve and whether there is any chance of détente or rapprochement. His paper also examines how Beijing plans to position itself in 2025 based on its recent policy signals, what the Republican and Democratic party platforms share, and how a new US Presidency is likely to shape Washington’s China strategy.
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Author
Matt Gertken
Matt is BCA Research’s Chief Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy and US Political Strategy.
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