Trump follows through on changing the global trade order

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Trump imposes tariffs (again) | Deals for Japan, Korea, the EU, and Indonesia…but punishment for India | The hard part begins 

Trump imposes tariffs (again)

The White House announces modified reciprocal tariff rates, and the New York Times updates its tracker with the new tariffs for every country. Keith Johnson in Foreign Policy writes that the tariffs upend global trade.  Michael Froman of the Council on Foreign Relations notes the tradeoffs in Trump’s trade policies. Politico finds that businesses have gotten some clarity but are not reassured.

Mentioned publications 

1. Further Modifying the Reciprocal Tariff Rates – The White House, July 31, 2025
   The White House formalized new reciprocal tariff rates targeting countries based on trade deal outcomes. The policy reflects President Trump’s push to reshape global trade, with punitive measures for non-compliant nations. The document outlines the legal basis and scope of the changes, signaling a return to protectionist trade strategies not seen since the 1930s.
2. Tracking Trump’s New Tariffs on Every Country – The New York Times, August 7, 2025
   This interactive tracker details the new US tariffs country by country, showing which nations secured deals and which faced penalties. It highlights the complexity of Trump’s trade overhaul and the lack of transparency in some agreements. The tool is updated regularly to reflect evolving trade relationships and offers insights into winners and losers under the new regime.
3. Trump’s Long-Promised Tariffs Upend Global Trade – Keith Johnson, Foreign Policy, August 1, 2025
   Trump’s tariffs mark a seismic shift in global trade, disrupting supply chains and alliances. The article explores how the policy undermines multilateralism, emboldens unilateralism, and creates uncertainty for businesses. It warns of long-term consequences for US credibility and global economic stability.
4. Trade-Offs in Trump’s Trade Policy – Michael Froman, Council on Foreign Relations, August 1, 2025
   Council on Foreign Relations examines the strategic trade-offs in Trump’s tariff policy. While some sectors gain protection, others face retaliation and higher costs. The article critiques the lack of coherence and questions whether the policy achieves its stated goals of fairness and reciprocity. It calls for a more balanced and transparent approach.
5. Businesses got some clarity on Trump’s trade deal. They aren't reassured. – Daniel Desrochers and Victoria Guida, Politico, August 1, 2025
   Politico reports that while businesses now understand parts of Trump’s trade deal, many remain uneasy. The article highlights confusion over implementation, rules of origin, and enforcement. Companies fear supply chain disruptions and rising costs, with some expressing concern over the lack of stakeholder consultation.

Deals for Japan, Korea, the EU, and Indonesia…but punishment for India

Per Richard Katz, Tokyo finds solace in their deal’s ambiguity.  The NY Times asks whether Japan wants American cars.  Natixis says that Korea avoided a worst case scenario.  The Chosun Daily already finds disagreement over the terms of the US-Korea deal. Matthias Mattijs of the Council on Foreign Relations writes that the EU avoided a war but increased dependence on the US. Reuters reports on a deal between the US and Indonesia, who also published a joint statement. Bloomberg explains how the rift between the US and India could be a win for China, as the White House imposes an additional 25% tariff.

Mentioned publications 

1. Tokyo Says: If We Don’t Put Anything in Writing, We Don’t Have to Fulfill Trump’s Demands – Richard Katz, Japan Economy Watch, July 31, 2025
   Richard Katz explains Japan’s strategy of ambiguity in its deal with the US. By avoiding written commitments, Tokyo retains flexibility and avoids binding concessions. The article suggests Japan is cautiously navigating Trump’s demands while preserving autonomy in trade negotiations.
2. Does Japan Want American Cars? Trump’s Push to Open Foreign Markets Faces Test. – River Akira Davis, The New York Times, August 5, 2025
   River Akira Davis explores Japan’s reluctance to open its auto market to US vehicles. Despite pressure from Trump, cultural preferences and regulatory barriers persist. The article questions whether trade deals will meaningfully shift consumer behavior or market dynamics.
3. South Korea Secured 15% Tariff and Auto Relief, Avoiding a Worst-Case Scenario – Trinh Nguyen, Natixis, August 1, 2025
   Trinh Nguyen reports that South Korea avoided worst-case tariffs by securing a 15% rate and auto sector relief. The deal reflects Seoul’s strategic diplomacy and willingness to compromise. The article notes that while tensions remain, the outcome is relatively favorable.
4. Seoul, Washington at odds on agriculture, $350 bn fund ahead of summit – The Chosun Daily, August 4, 2025
   The Chosun Daily highlights unresolved issues in the US–Korea trade deal, including agriculture and a US$350 billion fund. The article suggests that despite headline agreements, substantive disagreements persist, potentially complicating future negotiations.
5. U.S.-EU Trade Deal Avoids a Tariff War, but Deepens European Dependence - Matthias Mattijs, Council on Foreign Relations, July 30, 2025
   Matthias Mattijs argues that the EU avoided a tariff war but at the cost of increased dependence on the US. The deal reflects strategic compromise but raises concerns about sovereignty and long-term economic alignment.
6. Indonesia to cut tariffs, non-tariff barriers in US trade deal – David Lawder and Andrea Shalal, Reuters, July 22, 2025
   Reuters reports that Indonesia agreed to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers in its deal with the US. The agreement aims to boost bilateral trade and investment, with both sides publishing a joint statement outlining the framework.
   • Joint Statement on Framework for United States-Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade - The White House, July 22, 2025
7. Modi-Trump Trade Standoff Could Hand China the Prize – Menaka Doshi, Bloomberg, August 7, 2025
   Bloomberg presents that India’s exclusion from trade deals and punitive tariffs could be a win for China. The article links the standoff to India’s oil purchases from Russia and suggests geopolitical consequences for US influence in Asia.
   • Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of the Russian Federation - The White House, August 6, 2025

The hard part begins

Bloomberg points out why a product’s country of origin matters, now more than ever. The New York Times notes that the tariffs may be hard to quit because of the revenue generated. The Yale Budget Lab provides a weekly state of US tariffs impact assessment. Nikkei looks at the weight of tariffs on global growth. Hector Torres in the Financial Times opines that we can’t blame all of the trade chaos on Trump. Hinrich Foundation’s Deborah Elms writes on the painful adjustment of trade practices we’ve taken for granted.

Mentioned publications

1. Why a Product’s Country of Origin Matters in Trump’s Trade War – Katia Dmitrieva, Bloomberg, August 8, 2025
   Katia Dmitrieva explains how rules of origin and transshipment affect tariff enforcement. The article warns that companies may struggle to comply, and loopholes could undermine policy goals. It calls for clearer guidelines and better monitoring.
2. Trump’s Tariffs Are Making Money. That May Make Them Hard to Quit. – Andrew Duehren, The New York Times, August 3, 2025
   Andrew Duehren reports that Trump’s tariffs are generating significant revenue, making them politically hard to reverse. The article explores how this income affects budget planning and trade policy inertia.
3. State of U.S. Tariffs: August 7, 2025 – Yale Budget Lab, August 7, 2025
   Yale Budget Lab provides a weekly assessment of US tariffs, tracking revenue, sectoral impact, and compliance. The report offers data-driven insights into the evolving trade landscape and policy effectiveness.
4. Trump's tariffs kick in, weighing on global growth outlook – Nikkei Asia, August 8, 2025
   Nikkei Asia warns that Trump’s tariffs are dampening global growth prospects. The article cites reduced investment, supply chain disruptions, and rising costs as key concerns. It calls for coordinated international responses.
5. HF sponsored accessWe can’t blame all global trade chaos on Trump – Hector Torres, Financial Times Op-ed, August 3, 2025
   Hector Torres argues that while Trump’s policies are disruptive, deeper structural issues also fuel trade instability. The op-ed calls for broader reform of global trade institutions and more inclusive policymaking.
6. Napkin deals and trade edicts: The only certainty in global trade is uncertainty – Deborah Elms, Hinrich Foundation, August 5, 2025
   Trump’s strategy of “divide and conquer” has driven outcomes in his second attempt at Liberation Day that appear more favorable than his first try in April. However, his expansionist use of tariffs as a tool for all manner of problems is increasingly likely to drive more coordination among other governments against Washington. Trump’s latest napkin deals and edicts only reinforce the message that practices taken for granted in the past will be unevenly and potentially painfully adjusted.

The summaries for each link were produced with assistance from a Hinrich Foundation AI agent, supervised by the Foundation's research program.

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