Continuing to browse our website indicates your consent to our use of cookies. For more information, see our Privacy policy.

What we are reading

Tariff threats

Published 03 December 2024

Last week, US President-elect Trump threatened to impose tariffs of 25% on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada and 10% on all Chinese imports over allegations of inaction on immigration, drug trafficking, and fentanyl production. Later, he threatened 100% tariffs on BRICS economies seeking alternatives to the dollar as the global reserve currency. Here's what we have been reading on the opening salvos in high-pressure negotiations in US trade policy.

Hinrich Foundation is sponsoring unrestricted access to Financial Times articles on this page for up to 500 readers.

Jump to Section

What, why, and how | Reaction and impact | Trump makes key trade and economic appointments | Meanwhile, the WTO announced Director General Ngozi’s appointment for a second term | G20 leaders and COP29 Convene | US Outbound Investment Restrictions go into effect on January 2 | Trade and AI | More research from Hinrich Foundation

What, why, and how

  1. Trump Plans Tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China That Could Cripple Trade – Ana Swanson, Matina Stevis-Gridneff, and Simon Romero, The New York Times, November 25, 2024
    The New York Times details Trump’s calls for tariffs on the US’s closest trading partners.

  2. Trump Demands 'Commitment' From BRICS Nations on Using Dollar – Stephanie Lai, Bloomberg, December 1, 2024
    Trump threatens to impose 100% tariffs on economies looking to "de-dollarize".

  3. HF sponsored accessHow to deal with Donald Trump’s tariff threats – Alan Beattie, Financial Times, November 26, 2024
    Beattie recommends a wait and see approach when it comes to reacting to Trump’s tariff threats.

  4. Does Donald Trump have unlimited authority to impose tariffs? – The Economist, November 27, 2024
    The Economist identifies the legal paths Trump can use to take threatened actions on tariffs.

 🠕 Back to top

Reaction and impact

  1. Collateral Damage Report: Who Gets hurt by the Trump Tariff Bombshells? – Richard Baldwin, IMD Factful Friday, November 29, 2024
    Baldwin argues that US services workers and autoworkers may lose the most if Trump imposes tariffs.

  2. Trump Tariff Threat 'Chilling Signal' for Mexico Economy – Maya Averbuch, Bloomberg, November 28, 2024
    Bloomberg reports that analysts are downgrading forecasts for Mexico’s economic growth.

  3. What Trump’s Tariffs Will Mean for China – James Palmer, Foreign Policy, November 26, 2024
    Palmer thinks that China’s response to new tariffs will be multifaceted, making use of new tools.

  4. Chinese Exports to Hit Record This Year Before Second Trump Term – Bloomberg, November 25, 2024
    Bloomberg finds that Chinese exports are expected to hit a record high this year.

  5. Japan Braces for Trump 2.0 – Matthew Goodman, Council on Foreign Relations, November 21, 2024
    Goodman writes that Japanese leaders are concerned about multiple facets of Trump’s economic policies.

  6. HF sponsored accessSouth Korea lowers interest rates over Trump fears – Financial Times, November 28, 2024
    The FT reports of an unusual interest rate cut by Korean authorities.

  7. Trump, tariffs and trade in Southeast Asia: 5 things to know – Francesca Regalado, Nikkei Asia, November 21, 2024
    Nikkei argues that Trump’s proposed tariffs present both challenges and opportunities for Southeast Asia.

  8. Britain charts tricky trade course as Trump threatens tariffs – Alistair Smout, Reuters, November 28, 2024
    Reuters reports that Britain will attempt to avoid Trump’s ire while fostering growth with the EU and China.

  9. A Trump trade war 2.0 will be worse than the first for Europe – Carlo Martuscelli, Politico, October 31, 2024
    Politico expects that the EU could lose sales to the US while contending with a flood of imports from China 

 🠕 Back to top

Trump makes key trade and economic appointments

  1. Trump picks Lighthizer acolyte to be his trade chief – Doug Palmer, Betsy Woodruff Swan and Ari Hawkins, Politico, November 26, 2024
    Politico reports that Trump will appoint Jamieson Greer as US Trade Representative.

  2. China's Economic Might and Trade Policy (moderated panel discussion) – Jamieson Greer, Mary Lovely, and Damien Ma, World Trade Center Utah, October 1, 2022
    Greer’s comments reveal his views about China as a non-market economy and perspectives related to China’s PNTR status.

  3. American Trade Law in a Post-WTO Appellate Body World (moderated panel discussion) – Jamieson Greer, David Ross, and Trevor R. Jones, The Federalist Society, May 8, 2023
    Greer provides views on WTO rules in the current era and the US approach toward the WTO dispute settlement body.

  4. HF sponsored accessWhy Scott Bessent could be Trump’s James Baker – Shahin Vallee, Financial Times Op-ed, November 25, 2024
    Vallee believes Bessent has the potential to forge a new Plaza Accord.

  5. How bad is Trump commerce pick Howard Lutnick – and his tariff talk – for China? – Dewey Sim, South China Morning Post, November 20, 2024
    The SCMP speculates that Lutnick will be bullish on tariffs and tough on China. 

 🠕 Back to top

Meanwhile, the WTO announced Director General Ngozi’s appointment for a second term

  1. WTO General Council reappoints Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as Director-General for a second term – World Trade Organization, November 29, 2024
    Ngozi’s second term begins on September 1, 2025.

 🠕 Back to top

G20 leaders and COP29 Convene

  1. G20 leaders flag global conflicts, cooperation at Rio summit – Reuters, November 19, 2024
    G20 Rio de Janeiro Leaders’ Declaration
    Reuters sees shifting domestic political winds affecting multilateral agreement on key issues at the G20.

  2. What is COP29 and why is it important? – Ruth Townend, Chatham House, November 14, 2024
    Chatham House explains the significance of COP29.

  3. Key Outcomes from COP29: Unpacking the New Global Climate Finance Goal and Beyond – World Resources Institute, November 27, 2024
    The World Resources Institute gives context to the outcomes from COP29.

     

 🠕 Back to top

US Outbound Investment Restrictions go into effect on January 2

  1. Anatomy of a Technology Blockade: Unpacking the Outbound Investment Order – Barath Harithas, Center for Strategic and International Studies, July 15, 2024
    Harithas explains the proposed rules in the US outbound investment order originally proposed in 2023.

  2. Provisions Pertaining to U.S. Investments in Certain National Security Technologies and Products in Countries of Concern – US Department of the Treasury, November 15, 2024
    The Treasury Department publishes the final rule, to go into effect on January 2, 2025.

 🠕 Back to top

Trade and AI

  1. Trading with intelligence How AI shapes and is shaped by international trade – World Trade Organization, November 21, 2024
    The WTO considers how AI shapes trade and the role the WTO can play in promoting policy coherence.

More related analysis from HF:

© The Hinrich Foundation. See our website Terms and conditions for our copyright and reprint policy. All statements of fact and the views, conclusions and recommendations expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the author(s).

BACK TO TOP