Critical minerals, April 2 tariffs, and US strategy

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Securing critical minerals | April 2 tariffs loom | Tariffs and foreign investment | Tariff tracking tools

Securing critical minerals

Bloomberg reports on Trump’s latest executive order to expand US critical mineral output.  Per the Financial Times, China is concurrently increasing state funding for strategic materials. Trump’s agenda has a critical through line, finds Christina Lu in Foreign Policy. Cullen Hendrix in Barron’s describes what Ukraine really has. The Wall Street Journal digs into Greenland’s potential for a mining boom. Stewart Paterson of the Hinrich Foundation analyzes Chinese outbound investment data, highlighting Beijing's growing focus on metals and minerals over hydrocarbons.

Mentioned publications

1. Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production – Executive Order, The White House, March 20, 2025
   Trump’s executive order on critical minerals launches an aggressive federal push to expand domestic mineral production, declaring it critical to US national security and economic resilience. It fast-tracks permits, opens federal lands for mining, mobilizes public and private capital, and expands Defense Production Act powers to support strategic resource projects, all aimed at reducing America’s dependence on foreign-controlled supply chains.
2. Trump to Expand Critical Mineral Output Using Wartime Powers – Ari Natter and Joe Deaux, Bloomberg, March 21, 2025
   President Trump has invoked emergency powers to ramp up US production of critical minerals and rare earths, citing national security risks tied to heavy reliance on China. The executive order is drawing praise from industry groups and criticism from environmental advocates. A rare earths deal with Ukraine is also in the works as part of the administration’s broader effort to reshape global mineral supply chains.
3. HF sponsored accessChina raises state funding for strategic minerals amid US trade war – Edward White, Financial Times, March 20, 2025
   China is ramping up state support for domestic mineral exploration and tightening control over strategic resources as it races to secure supply chains amid growing tensions with the US. With billions invested annually and new laws easing land access, Beijing is reinforcing its grip on critical minerals, viewing self-sufficiency as a national security imperative, even at high economic cost.
4. Trump’s Chaotic Agenda Has a Critical Through Line – Christina Lu, Foreign Policy, February 26, 2025
   Trump’s renewed focus on resource-rich regions like Canada, Greenland, and Ukraine reflects a broader push to secure US access to critical minerals and reduce reliance on China. But in places like Ukraine, where there is no commercial rare earth production, the hype far outweighs reality—highlighting the gap between political ambitions and the long, complex process of building new supply chains.
5. Trump Is Focused on Ukraine’s Critical Minerals. Here’s What Ukraine Really Has. – Cullen Hendrix, Barron’s, February 28, 2025
   The Trump-Zelensky deal hinges on Ukraine’s potential mineral wealth to fund reconstruction through revenues from state-owned natural resources. While politically convenient, Ukraine’s minerals wealth is currently unknown, and bringing them to market would require massive investment, stable conditions, and years of development, making the economic payoff far from guaranteed.
6. Greenland Has the Makings of a Mining Boom. So Where Is Everyone? – Sune Engel Rasmussen, The Wall Street Journal, March 4, 2025
   Greenland holds some of the world’s richest rare earth mineral deposits, attracting global interest amid efforts to reduce reliance on China’s supply chain. But extreme weather, limited infrastructure, political hurdles, and strong local opposition have stalled major mining projects, as highlighted by a legal battle over a uranium-linked site. While the potential for economic transformation exists, environmental and cultural concerns may keep investors wary.
7. China’s long shadow on critical minerals looms over Asia – Stewart Paterson, Hinrich Foundation, November 5, 2024
   China has been investing heavily overseas to secure supply of critical minerals. In Southeast Asia, Beijing has invested about US$4 billion since 2012, mainly in Indonesia, which exports 16% of the world’s nickel. From a long-term geopolitical, economic, and sustainability perspective, it is not in ASEAN’s interests to be drawn exclusively into one Great Power’s sphere of influence.

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April 2 tariffs loom

With more tariffs on the horizon, Chad Bown and Douglas Irwin in Foreign Affairs pull apart Trump’s incoherent case for tariffs.  Andrew Liu in the Guardian explains how Trump’s trade war with China was 40 years in the making, The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump Administration explored a simplified plan for reciprocal tariffs.  The Congressional Research Service researches Presidential and Congressional authority for imposing tariffs and the interpretation of the courts in using these powers. The New York Times reports on how Republicans ceded the power to cancel Trump’s IEEPA tariffs. Deborah Elms of the Hinrich Foundation sets out how Trump plans his "liberation" of America from friend and foe alike.

Mentioned publications

1. The Incoherent Case for Tariffs – Chad P. Bown and Douglas A. Irwin, Foreign Affairs, March 11, 2025
   Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda aims to address trade deficits, job creation, and national security but experts warn it’s an inefficient and economically damaging approach. Tariffs risk raising prices for American consumers, straining global alliances, and often failing to achieve their intended goals. More strategic alternatives, like targeted tax reform and coordinated supply chain investments with allies, offer a smarter way forward. 

2. ‘Bring me my tariffs’: how Trump’s China plan was 40 years in the making – Andrew Liu, The Guardian, February 6, 2025
   Trump’s aggressive tariff policy toward China was decades in the making, rooted in his 1980s views shaped by Japan’s economic rise and trade tensions. His belief in using tariffs to protect American industry has culminated in sweeping levies on Chinese goods, reshaping US-China trade relations and fueling a broader shift toward protectionism. 

3. Trump Team Explored Simplified Plan for Reciprocal Tariffs – Gavin Bade, Josh Dawsey and Vipal Monga, The Wall Street Journal, March 18, 2025
   The Trump administration will unveil its sweeping "reciprocal tariff" plan on April 2, aiming to match the import duties other countries impose on the US. After scrapping a tiered system in favor of country-specific rates, officials now face significant logistical and legal challenges. The US Trade Representative’s office may take six months or more to execute the plan. Mexico and Canada are lobbying for favorable treatment or exemptions.  

4. Congressional and Presidential Authority to Impose Import Tariffs – Christopher T. Zirpoli, Congressional Research Service, February 27, 2025
   Congress holds constitutional authority over tariffs but has granted the President significant discretion through various trade laws. Courts have generally upheld these delegations, though recent Supreme Court rulings may challenge long-standing judicial deference to the executive. As recent administrations have actively used these powers, a growing debate in Congress questions whether to expand or rein in presidential control over trade policy. 

5. Republicans Quietly Cede Power to Cancel Trump’s Tariffs, Avoiding a Tough Vote – Catie Edmondson, The New York Times, March 11, 2025
   House Republican leaders blocked a vote to end Trump’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China by using a procedural loophole that effectively suspended a key congressional oversight mechanism. The move shields party members from taking a politically risky stance, while highlighting how Congress is increasingly ceding power to the executive branch on trade and economic policy. 

6. The looming chaos of Trump’s trade "Liberation Day" – Deborah Elms, Hinrich Foundation, March 25, 2025
   Donald Trump next week will unleash the largest sweep of his trade policy agenda yet, when his reciprocal tariff agenda goes global. April 2, which he is now calling "Liberation Day," will be a historic turning point in reversing the last 80 years of US economic integration, replacing it with his America First agenda. He frames it as freeing the US from nations he claims have long exploited it.  

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Tariffs and foreign investment

One stated goal of these tariffs is to prompt companies to bring manufacturing to the US.  The Economist asks whether the tariffs will turbocharge foreign investment in America, while Gillian Tett in the Financial Times warns that Trump may consider imposing taxes on free flows of capital.

Mentioned publications

1. Will Trump’s tariffs turbocharge foreign investment in America? – The Economist, March 17, 2025
   As global growth slows, the US remains the top consumer market, but doing business there has grown riskier for foreign firms under Trump’s tariff-driven policies. While some companies, such as TSMC, Siemens, Honda, are ramping up US investment to dodge trade barriers, others are reassessing their reliance on the market amid rising costs and uncertainty.

2. HF sponsored accessTariffs on goods may be a prelude to tariffs on money – Gillian Tett, Financial Times (Op-ed), March 14, 2025
   Rising economic uncertainty under Trump has sparked fears that his trade war could expand into restrictions on capital flows, marking a radical shift in US policy. Ideas like taxing foreign investment and weakening the dollar are gaining traction among Trump advisors, potentially signaling a broader rethink of global economic rules. As the old free-market consensus erodes, a new era of economic nationalism is taking shape.

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Tariff tracking tools

The Tax Foundation is compiling an ongoing estimate of the economic impact of US tariffs. It provides a comprehensive timeline of Trump’s trade war and tracks the country-specific as well as the product-specific tariffs announced by the US administration.

Mentioned publications

1. Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War – Erica York and Alex Durante, Tax Foundation, March 21, 2025
   The Tax Foundation provides a compendium of tariff moves and tracks the estimated economic impact of Trump’s tariffs. Before accounting for any foreign retaliation, proposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, and expanded steel and aluminum tariffs would cut US output by 0.4%, while proposed EU and auto tariffs could shrink GDP by another 0.3%. After-tax incomes would fall by 1% on average in 2026, with the top 1% seeing the smallest drop at 0.8%. 

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