Current Accounts: The Hinrich Foundation Trade Podcast
Europe’s right turn: A threat to trade?
Published 24 September 2024
In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents sits down with Keith Rockwell, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, to discuss the future of Europe’s trade dynamics in light of its shifting political landscape.
Tune in to this special episode hosted by the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents in the United States here:
While the recent elections in Europe have not yet led to significant shifts in its trade and business landscape, the steady rise of far-right parties is setting the stage for future upheavals. These political movements challenge the very foundation of the European Union’s (EU) single market, which is built on free movement and multilateral cooperation. The Hinrich Foundation’s recent research examines how the surge in nationalism is driving new divisions within Europe, potentially undermining the region’s commitment to open borders and international trade. As these parties strengthen their foothold, their push for protectionist policies could reshape the flow of talent and capital, affecting not just trade but also the broader integration of European economies.
Some right-wing factions, especially in countries like France and Germany, are adopting pro-business approaches, tempering their traditionally anti-trade rhetoric to appeal to a broader electorate. However, this shift may be more tactical than permanent, as the underlying nationalist and protectionist ideals remain deeply embedded in these movements. The growing influence of such ideologies across Europe raises questions about the long-term stability of trade and economic policies within the EU.
Tune into this special episode as Keith Rockwell, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, discusses the rising influence of far-right parties across Europe and its potential impact on the region’s trade policies, immigration, and the core principles of the EU.
Here is an excerpt from their conversation:
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Alan Herrera: |
How might the rise of these far-right parties, how might that affect the European single market, particularly in terms of labor, mobility, and immigration? What do you see as, or I should say, what are the potential risks for the free movement of people, which is a core component of the EU? |
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Keith Rockwell: |
Well, they're significant. They're significant, and particularly on an issue, you mentioned immigration, and this means immigration not only from outside the Union, but even from within the Union. You see that the far right in France and in Germany, have issues with their European neighbors and certainly major issues with people coming in from outside the Union. If there was one issue on which all of these parties would agree whether it's the Freedom Party or Alternative for Deutschland or whether it's the Brothers of Italy, they all agree on the issue of immigration and they are not in favor of it. So, what does that mean? Well, you see that you have these rules in place. I think it's the Dublin Agreement, when refugees come into a single country, that country has responsibility for managing, for example, the asylum process. But it's very easy to move around within the 27 member states and sometimes these folks get lost. This is what we saw in Germany recently with the terrible terrorist attacks of a couple of weeks ago, which I think in turn sparked the turnout for the AFD in those eastern German state elections.
I think if you start to mess around with the Single Market and you lean in the direction of restriction, you're going to really, really undermine the Single Market and the Maastricht Treaty. And in fact, in fact, Marine Le Pen who heads the [NR] in France has made clear that she thinks that even the movement of goods as well as persons within the EU is something that warrants a second look, and that's like pulling on the string of a sweater. Once you start to do that, the whole thing starts to unravel. So yes, the answer is that that can happen and that's something that worries many, many Europhiles. |
Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.
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Author
Keith M. Rockwell
Keith M. Rockwell is a Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation. Prior to his retirement in June 2022, Keith served as a Director at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and spokesperson for the organization for more than 25 years. He also is Global Fellow at the Wilson Center.
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