UNCTAD Global Trade Update May 2025

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How to find the key insights

Introduction

1. Copper is central to global transitions toward renewable energy and a digitally connected economy; its qualities make it crucial for key industries; demand is expected to increase by over 40% by 2040, placing mounting pressure and supply limitations on the global copper market; to meet demand, coordinated policy action is essential. (p. 2)

Understanding the structure of the global copper supply chain

1. The global copper supply chain comprises ore extraction, processing, and production of refined copper; copper’s exceptional properties - outstanding electrical and thermal conductivity, malleability, and corrosion resistance - make it vital for various industries. (p. 3, Figure 1)

2. China’s role as a major processing center is a notable feature of the supply chain; Chile and Peru account for nearly half of global copper ore and concentrate exports while Zambia and the DRC are key exporters of unrefined copper; China is the largest destination for most of these exports and is also the largest importer of refined copper. (p. 4, Figure 2)
3. Five countries hold over 50 percent of the world’s total reserves: Chile has the largest share, followed by Australia and Peru, then the DRC and Russia. (p. 5, Figure 3)

4. Meeting the expected demand for copper by 2040 may require more than 10 million tons of additional copper; the world may need to develop 80 new copper mines at an investment of US$250 billion; in 2023 nearly half of demand came from building construction and consumer electronics. (p. 6, Figure 4)
5. Mine production of copper refers to extraction of copper ores from the earth; developing countries play a central role in the global copper industry, particularly in mining, with Chile leading production, followed by the DRC and Peru; the DRC is rapidly strengthening its position as a leading copper producer thanks to the high quality of its reserves, while Chile’s production has declined. (p. 6, Figure 5)

6. Refinery production involves the processing of mined ore into pure, usable copper; global copper refinery production grew 2.5 times from 1990 to 2023 and has increased by 10% in the last five years; much of the expansion is from China which now accounts for 45% of global output and has the largest global refining capacity; China accounts for the Asia’s dominance in refining; Africa’s share of refining has risen modestly, while the Americas’ share has declined steeply and Europe saw a marked decrease. (pp. 7-11; Figures 6-9)

7. Geopolitical tensions and logistical challenges can significantly disrupt copper supply chains, and this is often reflected in fluctuating stockpile levels. (pp. 11-12)
8. Value addition in copper reflects greater economic value through domestic processing and strengthening of key macroeconomic indicators; value addition supports industrial development, job creation, and technological progress; downstream processing investing and manufacturing helps countries boost global competitiveness and reduce reliance on raw material exports; value addition is concentrated in copper wire production. (p. 12, Figure 10)

9. China, Germany, Japan, and the US are the top exporters of value-added copper; major export markets are India, Southeast Asia, and the EU; four of the top five exporters of copper wire are developed (p. 13, Figure 11)
10. Copper recycling preserves its physical and chemical properties without degradation, uses significantly less energy than mining and refining newly extracted copper, and can help to meet growing demand with less environmental impact; countries can benefit from exporting copper scrap for recycling; nearly one-third of copper in use in 2023 was recycled; developed countries are the primary source of scrap exports with the US, Germany, Japan, Malaysia, and the Netherlands as the largest exporters. (p. 14, Figure 12)

Copper supply chains and trade: global trends

1. In the past 20 years, the global copper supply chain has undergone a profound geopolitical realignment as China rapidly rose from a major importer, overtaking Japan, to the leading player across multiple stages of the supply chain; by 2023, China accounted for 60% of imports of copper ores and concentrates; traditional exporters Botswana, Brazil, Chile, and Peru have declined in export share while the DRC and Germany have emerged as key exporters of refined copper and copper mattes, respectively. (pp. 15-17, Figures 13-17)

The shifting landscape of the global copper market: opportunities and challenges for developing economies

1. As global demand increases, developing economies with abundant reserves like Chile, Peru and the DRC are scaling up investments in mining and infrastructure along the value chain, aiming to capture greater value from their natural resources; realizing these ambitions involves overcoming external shocks including price volatility, trade restrictions, and fluctuations in demand; economies’ uneven readiness for industrial upgrading will require targeted public policy, investment, and regional economic integration. (p. 18)
2. The 2023 tariff landscape featured low tariffs for refined copper and unwrought alloys, and much higher tariffs on semi-finished and value-added products, reflecting strategic efforts to protect and promote downstream domestic industries and discourage processing in resource-rich exporting countries; this reinforces global value chain asymmetries, limiting developing countries’ participation in higher-value manufacturing. (pp. 18-19, Table 1)
3. Copper-based manufacturing is expanding, providing opportunities for developing countries to become competitive suppliers by investing in manufacturing, creating industrial spillovers that enhance a country’s productive capacity; yet most copper exporting countries remain below the global average for economic complexity – a critical proxy for technological capability and industrial sophistication; this highlights the importance of diversification into higher-complexity products for long-term development. (pp. 20-21, Figures 18-19)

Policy options and strategic responses

1. To address the world’s looming supply deficit for copper, exploration and product development must be accelerated; diversification of supply sources is crucial – through forming strategic trade partnerships to reduce trade barriers and encouraging use of domestic copper; to compete in a rapidly evolving market, copper-exporting countries must transition to become value-added producers, including through government support and tax and trade incentives; circular economy strategies are essential to close the gap between supply and demand. (p. 22)

Conclusion

The UNCTAD Global Trade Update May 2025 provides important information to understand a highly relevant and topical issue about a critical industrial material, and is helpful to any policymaker working to navigate and support this key supply chain.

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External Resources

• OECD Inventory of Export Restrictions on Industrial Raw Materials 2025: Monitoring the Use of Export Restrictions Amid Growing Market and Policy Tensions May 2025 – OECD
  An inventory focused on critical minerals and other industrial raw materials, and the increasing use of export controls affecting trade.

• How export restrictions threaten economic security – Peterson Institute for International Economics
  Analyzing examples of export restrictions, PIIE considers how these restrictions and the fear of them lead to the adoption of industrial policy initiatives to build resilience in supply chains.
• Trump’s US Copper Tariffs - What’s the Idea, and Can It Work? – Bloomberg
  Bloomberg explains why Trump is threatening copper imports with a 50% tariff rate beginning from August 1, current US copper production, the prospects for increasing US supply, and whether an increase in US supply can meet current US demand.

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