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Why US crackdown on transshipment could have consequences for India
Decoupling from China has been a slow and painful process even for the US. For India — which aims to expand its manufacturing base to create jobs for its large population — the challenge is even greater. The lower cost of Chinese goods has disrupted several Indian industries. In a report published by the Hinrich Foundation, Chen Gang of the National University of Singapore noted that China’s “state capitalism has an innate tendency to focus on the ‘supply side’ instead of the ‘demand side,” and this approach has led to “enormous industrial capacity subsidized by the state but detached from real market demand.”
Trump’s tariffs aren’t wrecking the economy, supporters say. But here’s what they’re missing.
President Donald Trump and his supporters are pointing to the stock market’s record highs and other encouraging economic indicators to argue that concerns about his tariffs are overblown. Skeptics, however, say it’s too soon to declare that all’s well, especially given that higher levels of import taxes could be coming. “If the tariffs kick in at a higher rate as expected, as early as 15 days from now, there will be even more damage to the US economy, and it is not difficult to find a lot of U.S. businesses, especially US small businesses, who are increasingly struggling under tariff costs,” Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at the Hinrich Foundation, said.
Trump’s Russia Tariff Threat Risks Harming Ties With Modi, Xi
US President Donald Trump’s latest threat of 100% tariffs on Russia would risk complicating relations with two nations crucial to his economic and strategic goals: China and India. Trade analysts, including the Hinrich Foundation's Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms, said the proposed levies would be difficult to police and, if implemented, could well backfire on the US. “It remains unclear how exactly you would do this, and how China or anyone would certify that they’re meeting the US requirement,” Elms noted. “It’s going to add more fuel to the fire of why these countries are skeptical of receiving a deal from Trump.”
‘Some cannot source outside China’: S’pore firms’ challenges and support needed amid US tariffs
The lack of detail on Trump's tariffs has created something of a Rubik’s cube for firms trying to navigate these testing new waters. “Some [companies] have accelerated production to ship products to the US while tariffs are lower. Others have stopped or postponed production until they have greater clarity. But uncertainty has a cost as well, including a lack of investment for new capacity," said Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at the Hinrich Foundation. “Any tariff is a challenge for firms, but one that hits all imports equally or nearly equally is not as damaging as one that hits your producers the hardest with the highest rates.”
Vietnam's soaring US trade surplus stokes new fears of Trump tariffs
Vietnam is vulnerable to becoming the new Trump administration's next target for tariffs as data shows its trade surplus with the US ballooning. US trade data released on Thursday showed the country's deficit with Vietnam reached $102 billion in the first ten months of this year, nearly a 20% increase over the same period in 2023. "Vietnam is an ideal candidate for early action because it cannot easily retaliate," Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms said.
Europe in the line of fire as Trump threatens trade war with China
Things could become tense between Brussels and Washington, as the fear that a flood of Chinese exports would be pushed to Europe by an insurmountable US tariff wall grows. "The Trump administration, like the Biden administration, will expect the EU to respond to China’s export driven economic policies in a similar way as the United States,” said Senior Research Fellow Keith Rockwell. But the US and the EU have been there before — and there are big transatlantic differences on the best approach to take.
China’s foreign investment is falling. Will a second Trump presidency deal a heavier blow?
China's inbound FDI faces a challenging outlook as Trump's return to the White House clouds Beijing’s ongoing efforts to retain and attract overseas businesses. Foreign companies contributed over half of China’s export value between 1996 and 2010, according to Senior Research Fellow Stewart Paterson. China runs the risk of being increasingly divorced from growth in foreign supply chains if the downward FDI trend continued, Paterson wrote.
Breaking down the world’s tariffs against China’s tech industry
The EU and the US have long been the most vocal critics of China's economic policies. In recent years, non-Western economies have joined the ranks of countries imposing tariffs affecting on China’s tech industry. “The US kicked this ball off, got the ball rolling, but they’re not alone in viewing China’s trade practices as unfair” and using tariffs to protect and “incentivize” alternative suppliers, Senior Research Fellow Stewart Paterson told Rest of World.
Promise and peril for Southeast Asia in Trump’s tariff talk
Trump has repeatedly railed against the trade surpluses many countries besides China have built up with the US and suggested bringing them down with higher tariffs on their goods as well, or with other trade restrictions. This could prove problematic for many countries in Asia, and Vietnam especially, says Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms. Vietnam's trade surplus with the US has soared well past $100 billion since 2019.
Trump’s tariff threat sets stage for bitter global trade war
As officials in Canada, China, and Mexico scrambled to respond to Trump's tariff threats, Senior Research Fellow Keith Rockwell predicts that Trump’s move could spark a trade war. “The United States exports hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods to these countries,” he said. “Anyone who expects that they will stand pat and not retaliate has not been paying attention.”
Trump Tests Xi’s Appetite to Play Ball With Early Tariff Threat
Donald Trump fired an opening shot in his tariff battle with Beijing by promising an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods. The question that now confronts President Xi Jinping is how much more is coming. For Beijing, Trump's tariff threats amounts to a confirmation of a challenge looming ahead and the near certainty that China will have to contend with 60% tariffs — at least, said Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms. “This latest salvo from Trump is just a reminder to take him seriously,” she said.
Trump trade stance pushes Asian nations toward regional alliances
Asian countries are responding to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist rhetoric by placing greater emphasis on regional and bilateral trade agreements aimed at promoting transnational economic cooperation without U.S. involvement, analysts say. Agreements such as the RCEP and the CPTPP “will help us manage some of the chaos and damage from the collapsing global system,” said Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms in an interview with Nikkei Asia.