Hinrich Foundation Global Trade Outlook 2025

Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy in the opening weeks of his administration are upending global trade and the world order. Trump's "America First" approach has meant unilateral tariffs, threats to rewrite the multilateral trading system, an evisceration of key global geostrategic alliances, and that’s just the first two weeks.

Watch the recap:

The Hinrich Foundation’s Trade Outlook 2025, moderated by Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms, asked DLA Piper’s Nathan Bush and The Economist’s Ethan Wu to lead a discussion on the current position and potential future directions of global trade. 

Five key takeaways: 

1. Expect more aggressive tariff measures from the US, including "reciprocal tariffs" that consider duties, value-added taxes (VAT), subsidies, and non-tariff measures of its trading partners. The swift implementation of these measures is highly probable. They expand on Trump’s tariff war on China and sector-specific tariffs on strategic goods. 
2. Major US policy shifts include a loosening of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), a long-held US law to combat graft worldwide, and stricter export controls. This signals changes in competition policies even within international agreements. As export controls tighten, companies are increasingly being traced to and identified with their ultimate parent entities, requiring firms to be more vigilant about international operations and potential legal consequences. 
3. Increased political exposure in China and Asian markets, where the US has embarked on ambitious efforts to restrict China’s access to advanced technologies, including semiconductors and AI models. Companies must be prepared to manage exposure to China's retaliatory actions, including the unreliable entity list and antitrust investigations. This geopolitical tug-of-war has led to trade diversions, with Asian markets becoming critical focal points for circumventing US sanctions and trade controls. 
4. Increased challenges in coordinating policy responses could ensue given the uncertainty created by a lack of US leadership. Countries may struggle to coordinate their responses effectively due to the rapid pace of regulatory changes and the geopolitical maneuvering of major economies. Achieving a unified interest among different nations is increasingly difficult.  
5. The ability to manage supply chain and trade compliance is more critical than ever as companies must navigate a web of tariffs, export controls, and other changing regulations, while striving to remain competitive in the global market. Effective supply chain management and trade compliance are no longer just operational concerns but strategic imperatives.

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