The Trump tariff strategy report card

Six months into President Trump’s second term, his aggressive tariff policies and volatile trade threats continue to disrupt the global economy. At a recent webinar hosted by the National Press Foundation, and sponsored by the Hinrich Foundation, four experts — Deborah Elms, David Lynch, Dennis Shea, and Jeffrey Schwab — offered insights into the mounting economic uncertainty and legal challenges stemming from Trump’s approach to trade.

Watch the webinar:

Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at the Hinrich Foundation, emphasized the cumulative instability caused by Trump’s actions. "We have had an unbelievable amount of trade disruption," she said, warning that the situation is far from stabilizing. "Are those ripples in that pool going to ever calm down or are we going to continue to have this disordered number of waves crashing back and forth?" Elms predicted prolonged disruption: "My suspicion… we will be drowning in the swimming pool for a very long time to come because the waves themselves… are likely to keep going for as long as he stays in office." She added that the damage from sector-specific sanctions is "coming faster than some people would like to admit or acknowledge." 

David Lynch, Global Economics Correspondent at The Washington Post, echoed concerns that markets may be misreading the situation. He warned that both Trump and investors might be learning the wrong lessons. "The president looks at the market often as a bit of a report card on his performance," he said, suggesting that recent stock gains might falsely validate Trump’s trade strategy. Lynch challenged the "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) theory: "I don’t think he does always chicken out… I think he’s quite serious about the 10% baseline tariff on all imports." He predicted a shift toward a fundamentally altered trading system, with uncertain contours. 

Dennis Shea, former Deputy US Trade Representative and WTO ambassador, argued that Trump is delivering exactly what he promised. "President Trump campaigned on a 10 to 20% global tariff and on increasing tariffs on China up to 60%." Shea emphasized Trump’s use of the US consumer market as leverage to pursue objectives like balanced trade, industrial protection, and higher federal revenue—claiming tariffs had already raised over US$100 billion in the past year. "Basically, he’s doing nothing less than rewriting the rules of global trade," Shea said. 

Jeffrey Schwab, Senior Counsel at the Liberty Justice Centre, addressed the legal dimensions. In May, his organization secured a major court ruling against Trump’s global tariff strategy, with a federal court finding the president exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Schwab warned, "the president is asserting a vast amount of power to tariff… under our constitutional government, Congress is given the tariff power, not the president." The case is now headed for appeal and could reach the Supreme Court, with Schwab concluding, "the world economy is at stake." 

The panel collectively portrayed a trade environment marked by unpredictability, legal confrontation, and structural shifts, with Trump’s policies likely to reshape global commerce for years to come. 

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